{"id":12871,"date":"2026-01-20T16:12:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T15:12:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=12871"},"modified":"2026-01-20T16:12:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T15:12:19","slug":"crypto-on-the-edge-of-its-first-technical-bear-market-ever-recorded-was-a-time-for-crypto-now-time-for-gold-and-silver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=12871","title":{"rendered":"Crypto on the edge of its first technical bear market ever recorded. Was a time for crypto, now time for gold and silver."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All charts and their alignments must be closed. While I described the key setup here :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong wp-block-embed-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"rE0tLnIy71\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=12800\">2025 year end<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;2025 year end&#8221; &#8212; Greg&#039;s blog ... When the crowd is always wrong\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=12800&#038;embed=true#?secret=IJe58riJib#?secret=rE0tLnIy71\" data-secret=\"rE0tLnIy71\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you haven&#8217;t read this, I encourage you &#8211; it&#8217;s really short, but you&#8217;ll get an idea how I interpret market cycles and pointing for big moments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In one point I shared my view why crypto is on the edge of its first technical bear market ever. Maybe 2025 results were some kind of a prediction. @CharlieBilello as usual posted o X the summary of each year. What is surprising is the pair &#8220;Highest Return&#8221; vs &#8220;Lowest Return&#8221; which has not happened in a history, but it might give us a hint what&#8217;ll happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1145\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-10-08-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12915\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-10-08-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-10-08-300x134.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-10-08-768x344.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-10-08-1536x687.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-10-08-2048x916.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1980 was the last year of &#8220;secular downturn &#8211; cycle transition towards disinflationary cycle&#8221;. Took 14 years, starting 1966. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 1973 SPX\/GOLD &amp; DJI\/GOLD broke (3M)MA200 confirming &#8220;closing all the doors&#8221; to execute transition to new cycle. That&#8217;s what happened in 2025 too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"714\" height=\"889\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-12-23.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12916\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-12-23.webp 714w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-12-23-241x300.webp 241w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 714px) 100vw, 714px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is GOLD surprising? Not at all and I think that&#8217;s still not the end of gold going up :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong wp-block-embed-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"3Qu1t8FMEU\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=5070\">Gold is approaching to a massive 50Y momentum break. Can we predict the price of gold based on technical charts? We&#8217;ll try.<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Gold is approaching to a massive 50Y momentum break. Can we predict the price of gold based on technical charts? We&#8217;ll try.&#8221; &#8212; Greg&#039;s blog ... When the crowd is always wrong\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=5070&#038;embed=true#?secret=5l57NC9ALF#?secret=3Qu1t8FMEU\" data-secret=\"3Qu1t8FMEU\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now let&#8217;s take a look on BTC returns :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"661\" height=\"893\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-25-28.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12920\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-25-28.webp 661w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-05_00-25-28-222x300.webp 222w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 661px) 100vw, 661px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2014, 2018, 2022 was just a correction in the same mega super bull market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Time to finally look on the charts<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>BTC\/GOLD<\/strong> and key levels (W)MA200 &amp; (M)MA50<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Very rare to see (M)MA50 higher than (W)MA200, but let&#8217;s start from the red (M)MA50 &#8211; a natural border between technical bull &amp; bear. Big moment in January 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1229\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-08-55-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13207\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-08-55-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-08-55-300x144.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-08-55-768x369.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-08-55-1536x737.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-08-55-2048x983.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">blue (W)MA200 &#8211; a little bit lower, but also a big moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1197\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-09-26-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13208\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-09-26-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-09-26-300x140.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-09-26-768x359.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-09-26-1536x718.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_16-09-26-2048x957.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Considering <strong>10y\/3m<\/strong> finally breaks +60bps post inversion it&#8217;s got very high chances to break those MA and open the first ever true technical bear market for BTC, and probably another try for stocks bear market, as last try was saved around 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1228\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_14-19-33-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13194\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_14-19-33-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_14-19-33-300x144.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_14-19-33-768x368.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_14-19-33-1536x737.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chrome_2026-01-20_14-19-33-2048x982.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">10y\/3m closes according to my model stock market.Together with US03MY breaking (M)MA50, breaking +60bps after inversion is a done deal unless this time is different?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong wp-block-embed-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"FDR0krncyC\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=11566\">Mastering technical turn of the market<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Mastering technical turn of the market&#8221; &#8212; Greg&#039;s blog ... When the crowd is always wrong\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=11566&#038;embed=true#?secret=n8idB2mFeZ#?secret=FDR0krncyC\" data-secret=\"FDR0krncyC\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cycle indicators (DJI\/GOLD &amp; SPX\/GOLD) have closed the doors some time ago.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>All charts and their alignments must be closed. While I described the key setup here : If you haven&#8217;t read this, I encourage you &#8211; it&#8217;s really short, but you&#8217;ll get an idea how I interpret market cycles and pointing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=12871\"> Read more&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57800504,"featured_media":12872,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11172884],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/57800504"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12872"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}