{"id":14076,"date":"2026-03-21T17:31:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T16:31:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=14076"},"modified":"2026-03-21T17:31:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T16:31:33","slug":"somebody-bets-on-20000-gold-in-december-2026-stupid-bet-or-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=14076","title":{"rendered":"Somebody bets on 20000$ GOLD in December 2026. Stupid bet or not?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Who the hell keeps buying 20000$ CALLS on December 2026 strike? That&#8217;s confirmed and it&#8217;s not any AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1525\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_12-42-48-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14077\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_12-42-48-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_12-42-48-300x179.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_12-42-48-767x457.jpg 767w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_12-42-48-1536x915.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_12-42-48-2048x1220.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To get an idea of my gold prediction you have to go back to this topic from January 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong wp-block-embed-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"62TybAJLf1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=5070\">Gold is approaching to a massive 50Y momentum break. Can we predict the price of gold based on technical charts? We&#8217;ll try.<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Gold is approaching to a massive 50Y momentum break. Can we predict the price of gold based on technical charts? We&#8217;ll try.&#8221; &#8212; Greg&#039;s blog ... When the crowd is always wrong\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=5070&#038;embed=true#?secret=E60Dqg4Pah#?secret=62TybAJLf1\" data-secret=\"62TybAJLf1\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this prediction I was trying to show you how low SP500 can go and how high GOLD can go. To sum it up you&#8217;ll find there 3 targets for SPX : 2200, 1500 and 800.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also you&#8217;ll find there multiple targets for gold. From 5700$ to 31500$, but these are extreme examples, while most of the targets sit somewhere between 10000$-20000$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what 20000$ bet tells us? If it&#8217;s going to materialize it tells us economy is going to collapse in a record EVER manner, what is not really surprising watching record ever yield-curve inversion. This is a bet that in 9 months global economy will flip just into medival times. Here we have a technical explanation of this possibility :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SP500<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Targets 2200, 1500, 800. Have in mind that &#8220;3rd&#8221; level is exactly on 1932-1942 TREND crossing and on bottoms of 2002-2009. That&#8217;s our 800. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1\/ 800 is 2002-2009 lows<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2\/ 1500 is 2000-2007 peaks<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3\/ 2200 is 2020 lows, 2016 peaks<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So now we&#8217;re still playing a game with 1929-2000-2024 back below the trend. I bet we&#8217;ll do it and this spike above this trend was a massive bull-trap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1241\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_13-05-53-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14082\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_13-05-53-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_13-05-53-300x145.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_13-05-53-767x372.webp 767w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_13-05-53-1536x745.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-20_13-05-53-2048x993.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To get closer view on this chart, you can see that 1929-2000 trend now sits on 6520 level for March 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong wp-block-embed-greg-039-s-blog-when-the-crowd-is-always-wrong\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"dPLDcIPtLo\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=11566\">Mastering technical turn of the market<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Mastering technical turn of the market&#8221; &#8212; Greg&#039;s blog ... When the crowd is always wrong\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=11566&#038;embed=true#?secret=aih2JSLypt#?secret=dPLDcIPtLo\" data-secret=\"dPLDcIPtLo\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1231\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-18-17-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14086\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-18-17-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-18-17-300x144.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-18-17-767x369.webp 767w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-18-17-1536x739.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-18-17-2048x985.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SPX\/GOLD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At some point of time we&#8217;ll run towards 1932-1980 trend. That&#8217;s &#8230; around 0.07, I bet middle point is 2011 level 0.6-0.7. I won&#8217;t be explaining what it means and how to interpret this chart. You can find plenty of articles where I talk about it, or if you are my long term follower, you know this chart probably by heart. Just remember 0.07 and 0.6-0.7 that&#8217;s it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1241\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-20-49-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14089\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-20-49-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-20-49-300x145.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-20-49-767x372.webp 767w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-20-49-1536x745.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-20-49-2048x993.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">GOLD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Considering the fact we are expecting SPX\/GOLD to jump to 0.07 to close and end secular disinflationary cycle using economic depression we need to take a look on GOLD. Big support and (M)MA20 sits on the same level = 3500$ and that will be still considered as a &#8230; huge high momentum bull market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To remind you : (M)MA20 = high momentum border, (M)MA50 = technical border between bull\/bear, (M)MA100 = middle point often bull\/bear trap level, (M)MA200 = secular border of a bull\/bear market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Distance from 5600$ peak to (M)MA50 was just -56%. Based on my definition that&#8217;s not even a definition of a big bubble it starts from -60%+ and over -70% I consider it as a &#8220;tulip bubble category&#8221;. During 1980 peak it was -75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To sum it up. I expect a correction of GOLD to reach 3500$ and massive move up. I expect that any try of injecting liquidity later will be &#8230; mostly going towards GOLD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Doubling the channel places ~17000$ level as its peak?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1241\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-24-56-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14090\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-24-56-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-24-56-300x145.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-24-56-768x372.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-24-56-1536x744.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-24-56-2048x993.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DXY<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This move in GOLD is just a signal of upcoming liquidity crisis, my ultimate low 96-96.5 for DXY => EURUSD = 1.20 is hold reaching #1 or #2 at the end. So I expect based on GOLD last drop massive move in DXY soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1241\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-32-15-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14091\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-32-15-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-32-15-300x145.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-32-15-767x372.webp 767w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-32-15-1536x745.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-32-15-2048x993.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">20000$ GOLD target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If market placed a bet on 20000$ GOLD target till December 2026, that&#8217;s just like XIVing the economy. Find XIV ETN which blew up in 2018 to get an idea what I&#8217;m talking about. Now let&#8217;s back to our 0.07 and 0.6-0.7 SPX\/GOLD levels<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let&#8217;s calculate SPX 800, 1500, 2200 levels<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">800 \/ 0.07 = 11500$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1500 \/ 0.07 = 21500$<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2200 \/ 0.07 = 31500$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If somebody bets so heavily on 20000$ gold target till December in reality I bet he expected SPX to hit 2000-2007 support level. I know I know it sounds SUPER HYPER EXTRA CRAZY. It&#8217;ll only happen once economy will just come to complete HALT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like : no oil, no fertilizer, no gasoline, empty shops etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This one line down towards 1500 doesn&#8217;t mean anything. I just want to show you this level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1238\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-38-39-scaled.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14092\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-38-39-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-38-39-300x145.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-38-39-767x371.webp 767w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-38-39-1536x743.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-21_16-38-39-2048x990.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now let&#8217;s come back to our 0.6-0.7 middle point. I expect we&#8217;re going to reach this level once GOLD will drop to (M)MA20 = 3500$<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3500$ * 0.6-0.7 = 2100-2450<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So 2100-2450 on SPX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Do you recognize this value? Of course that&#8217;s 2020 lows or 2016 peaks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of the path how to jump to 20000$ GOLD prices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As GOLD has already lost 1000$ it&#8217;s about to lose another 1000$ more IMO, but this time way slower. The same time we&#8217;re ready for a massive DXY spike and big EURUSD drop. Technicals saying big rescue is coming around 2020 low levels once GOLD will reach 3500$ there, which implies 2200 on SPX and SPX\/GOLD hits massive support on 0.6-0.7 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During that moment there&#8217;ll me massive liquidity injection which will flow towards GOLD mostly ignoring stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While GOLD will start parabolic move up from (M)MA20 = 3500$ after that moment, SPX won&#8217;t be able to find a big bid there slowly floating towards 1500 where it&#8217;ll find its bottom while GOLD reaches > 20000$ getting SPX\/GOLD towards 0.07 and it&#8217;ll end in December 2026, the same moment DXY hits 120 or 160.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So we can say record ever flip towards economic depression will occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This is guys a technical theory to this 20000$ bet. Will it materialize or not is a totally different story. I share my view how it&#8217;ll be realized looking on key charts if it decides to materialize.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Who the hell keeps buying 20000$ CALLS on December 2026 strike? That&#8217;s confirmed and it&#8217;s not any AI. To get an idea of my gold prediction you have to go back to this topic from January 2025 In this prediction <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=14076\"> Read more&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57800504,"featured_media":14098,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11172884],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/57800504"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14076"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14076\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14106,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14076\/revisions\/14106"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14098"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}