{"id":14148,"date":"2026-03-28T17:46:41","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T16:46:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=14148"},"modified":"2026-03-28T21:11:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T20:11:27","slug":"the-end-of-aisemiconductors-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=14148","title":{"rendered":"The end of AI+Semiconductors bubble?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lots of things happening that forces me to drop more articles here. AI+SOX setup forces to me to place an official post on my blog<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I&#39;ll try here <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24SOX&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$SOX<\/a> = 369 (I know I&#39;m late a bit) but :<br><br>&quot;Let&#39;s put an official cross on Semiconductors Index&quot;<br><br>I think I see that on SOX\/GOLD retest : <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ve7V9iR4Vr\">pic.twitter.com\/ve7V9iR4Vr<\/a><\/p>&mdash; GregTheAnalyst (@Analyst_G) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Analyst_G\/status\/2032538458296549745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 13, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the example above I put $SOXX ETF value, but considering SOX we&#8217;re talking about 8500 value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ll try to give you more detailed explanation why I think AI+SOX is finished for good as cycle has changed in the background.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4Q21, 2Q24, 4Q25 &#8211; key dates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I won&#8217;t be once again putting the same charts over and over again. 4Q21 is SPX\/GOLD cycle peak &#8211; that&#8217;s the MOST IMPORTANT DATE for you now. 4Q25 is the date when US03MY crossed down (M)MA50 and SPX\/GOLD broke its super secular (3M)MA200 level &#8211; to simplify that we will call this date just a stock market peak indicator. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Have in mind SPX\/GOLD cycle peak vs US03MY stock market peak difference is &#8230; 4Ys. During this period of time you can easily call &#8220;Stock market is not the economy&#8221;, but this is not true statement anymore, as I think now stock market is going to chase SPX\/GOLD massive drop since 4Q25 or beginning of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2Q24 is another important level from SOX perspective. While SPX\/GOLD told us about cycle peak in 4Q21 &#8211; and lots of stocks made peak during that level, SOX is different. SOX\/GOLD peaked 2Q24 &#8211; that can be called the hidden beginning of an end of AI+SOX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_17-02-55.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14155\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cyclical peak doesn&#8217;t mean stock market peak, what is important is the fact that 4Q21 was not a peak for SOX\/GOLD what will be important later when I give you couple examples about SOX stocks<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We see now a typical retest towards (M)MA50 which last time blew up dotcom bubble and ended TECH dominance for 20Ys. This is also a perfect 0.5 FIBO bounce (0.5 and 0.618 are typical dead cat bounce levels). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another fun fact is : SOX\/GOLD (M)MA50 retest happens exactly the same moment when US03MY broke (M)MA50. Another fun fact is : When in 2002 SOX\/GOLD retested (M)MA50, SOX failed -67% after it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SOX index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All dates you can see on the chart. Once yield-curve finally uninverts it gives us another important hint about the end of current biggest bubble :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_16-54-29.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14153\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What to expect? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once it&#8217;ll jump below 4Q25 level when US03MY crossed down (M)MA50 it&#8217;ll be a first sign it&#8217;s over. Still the chance is very high, once SOX\/GOLD can&#8217;t jump above (M)MA50. Later it should be quick drop below 2Q24 (SOX\/GOLD peak), to finally break 4Q21 (cycle peak) &#8211; maybe with a bounce from here. Remember that all cycle indicators DJI\/GOLD and SPX\/GOLD broke their super secular (3M)MA200 telling us &#8211; there&#8217;s no way out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you ask what will blow this bubble I&#8217;ll answer : I have no idea and I don&#8217;t care as I won&#8217;t even guess. This event will arrive for sure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDTWD breaks 40Ys trend, USDKRW &gt; 1500.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USDTWD trend break is a supplementary indicator of SOX peak &#8211; that&#8217;s how I think. Last time it was saved, but it&#8217;s breaking again. You all know this break will affect TSM. How? I have no idea and I won&#8217;t guess. Quick 3 points out of my head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1\/ Taiwan lost LNG supplies and run out of power<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2\/ Taiwan lost hellium supplies<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3\/ China enters Taiwan<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_17-11-32.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14158\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Korean Won doesn&#8217;t look too good : HYNIX &amp; SAMSUNG got some troubles. Considering the fact 10Y\/3M is just +73bps level 2000 from Asian Crisis might not even be the top especially if SOX bubble implodes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_17-14-29.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14160\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NDQ\/GOLD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But if you even take NDQ\/GOLD analysis you&#8217;ll see another super important cross junction. NDQ\/GOLD peaked in 2021, with a bit lower peak around this 2Q24. But from 2Q24 it was just a massive meltdown. Will we see 1 NDQ = 1 GOLD to get to 3xBOTTOM? That&#8217;s my bet. NDQ is &gt; 23000 today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you bet this (M)MA200 is support, I will tell you there&#8217;re high chances it won&#8217;t because more powerful indicators like DJI\/GOLD, SPX\/GOLD and US03MY (M)MA50 break and 10Y\/3M uninverting flashing red after big breaks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_17-04-02.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14156\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NVIDIA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nvidia is this company that reflects perfectly stock market peak indicator. The moment US03MY broke (M)MA50 NVDA placed 212$ level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2Q24 (SOX\/GOLD) peak places around (M)MA20 = losing high momentum bull market indicator, 4Q21 places around blue (M)MA200 = 35$ = secular bull\/bear market indicator<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initially I thought this 2Q24 peak will be hold, but &#8230; Nope it moved up more. What is more scarry is 4Q21 stays on &#8230; 35$ level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_17-18-09.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14162\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Micron<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ve never thought it&#8217;ll be Micron which will outplay NVIDA in the move up. You see all levels. No idea what&#8217;s going to happen, but Micron needs to jump below yellow level first to finally align with cycle inicators. The fact is that&#8217;s not Nvidia that needs to be observed to track the bubble bursting, but it&#8217;s Micron.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Micron also initially placed a tempting setup post 2Q24 drop below 4Q21 resistance giving an impression of keeping dotcom bubble peak as a resistance, but that all failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_17-20-20.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14164\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ASML<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ASML so far perfectly follows 2000-2021 trend, placing 3rd point on January 2026. 2Q24 peak is placed exactly on the same level as 4Q25 level (US03MY breaking (M)MA50).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_17-25-27.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14165\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">VALUE\/GROWTH rotation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another confirmation comes from Value\/Growth ratio. As everything breaks we should observe this kind of move. Value\/Growth is now above 4Q21 bottom, placing perfect bottom when US03MY broke (M)MA50. It&#8217;s another confirmation of GAME OVER.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chrome_2026-03-28_17-45-53.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14174\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-warning wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SUMMARY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It looks like SOX\/GOLD is going to reject (M)MA50 and crash. Last time it was a main indicator of a flush during dot.com bubble. On this SOX\/GOLD (M)MA50 retest wave SOX lost -67%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While Nvidia seems to be already busted, the game is about Micron. Of course there&#8217;re lots of other companies like SanDisk etc. but I decided to select 3 different examples. Nvidia as the biggest one, ASML as main producer of equipment, Micron as the main RAM producer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lots of things happening that forces me to drop more articles here. AI+SOX setup forces to me to place an official post on my blog In the example above I put $SOXX ETF value, but considering SOX we&#8217;re talking about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=14148\"> Read more&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57800504,"featured_media":14168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11172884],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14148","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/57800504"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14148"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14148\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14180,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14148\/revisions\/14180"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14168"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}