{"id":5890,"date":"2025-03-01T12:09:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-01T11:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=5890"},"modified":"2025-03-01T12:41:46","modified_gmt":"2025-03-01T11:41:46","slug":"03-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=5890","title":{"rendered":"03\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If you want to see charts larger scale, just click right mouse button on it and “open image in new tab” (chrome).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX and its 1929-2000 trend holds for 4th month setting up 3rd point 2024\/2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DXY – and its 107 support holds, what is not surprising if SPX holds 1929-2000 trend. Based on this chart we can say market received 2 additional “mini” bull-markets once 2011 DXY trend was broken down (2021 and 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EURUSD – rejects 1.05 as DXY holds 107<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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VIX and its trend I don’t like posting short term trend with log scale, but to make it more reliable we’re going to see VIX in log and non-log. One thing is sure, we’re in a middle of all (M)MAs <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AUDJPY is the main risk on\/off currency indicator, many people saying yields on bonds are a derivative of USDJPY, it might be right, but I doubt it saying US yields are now more correlated to AUDJPY than USDJPY, time’ll tell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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USDJPY – (M)MA20 holds, but trend is broken<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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USDCNH – main currency to be watched needs 7.37 to blow up as it’s strong resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SMCI – rejects (M)MA20, boucing between (M)MA20 and (M)MA50, still 4$ possible, but need to break (M)MA50 and leave this area between those two (M)MAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MU – rejects 2000 peak<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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INTC – rejects key resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AMD – looks really bad as secular channel holds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AMAT – another big flip below key support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AVGO – had a channel, but once it was broken I decided to add same channel above the previous one and here comes the result<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NVDA – and its 140$ key resistance. Double-top on 152$, looking on (M) candles we can see that this 152$ move was just overshooting 140$.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SOX – Semiconductors trend from October 2022 has been broken and retested<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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VGK – Europe – rejects key resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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COPPER – rejects key resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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OIL – until red trend line won’t be broken we can have hopes about inflation, once it’ll be broken – the whole MMT bounce about inflation crashed and exacerbated deflation, that’s what last time caused 2008 crash. Oil spiked, inflation slowed the economy, demand evaporated and gone. So far (M)MA50 is rejected, level 62$ is “the red trend”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLE – fights for its key resistance for soon 3 years<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLU – main safe-heaven stocks fights with support <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLB – Materials – below key support now resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLI – best sector so far<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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IWM – Small Caps – placed double-top and now on a key trend line, bears need to open March below the trend, bulls must keep it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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KRE – Regional Banking is following IWM it’s more or less the same chart, it was hold for couple months below black trend line, but just like IWM it decided to go above it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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C – CitiBank and its multiple resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GS – Goldman Sachs trend is kept but 2.618 extension level has been hit<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOLD – long term 1980-2011 trend was broken, but GOLD is heavily overbought, 2700$ is a natural retest of a broken trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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TLT – let’s see if 82$ was the ultimate low in October 2023, but this month it closed above key resistance (which is now support) = ~92$<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MOVE ends in 104 what was expected as I don’t expect it to break (M)MA200 and (M)MA50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SPY\/TLT after huge (M)RSI divergence reaching even 90 is reversing signalling problems<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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HYG\/TLT – I was a bit shocked it was breaking higher, but it seems it was short lived<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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US02Y – I bet this bounce is done<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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10Y\/2Y is just still +20bps, but probably once DXY holds 107 support, SPY\/TLT going back in the channel, we’re going to see bull steepening and big gains for DXY<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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10Y\/3M is down to -10bps, I expect 10Y\/2Y to lead the future of 10Y\/3M<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NIKKEI225 – and 1990 top<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MSTR – and its 2000 top<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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QQQ – Nasdaq is not having a long-term trend which we can rely on, but so far we connect points 2000-2021 and it’s floating still above<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MSFT – Microsoft plays really good in its channel<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOOGL – still above first top<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AMZN – same situation as GOOGL<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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TSLA fights with double-top<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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CRM – Salesforce below key support now flips to resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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FXI – China tries to break (M)MA50, permanent or false, time will tell<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EWH – Hong-Kong – very similar setup to FXI – it tries not to reject its secular trend, last time it failed, will it be different this time?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EWZ – Brazil and some kind of retest of a broken trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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USDBRL – this is support = EWZ going down<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EWW – Mexico – very beautiful chart, back below key trend + almost all (M)MAs :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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FDX – and double-top<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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BX – Blackstone and commercial real estate – still above key level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOLD\/BTC – main indicator of BTC peak once support hits <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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BTC and key support 70k$<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DJI\/GOLD – main cycle indicator and 2018 peak, support holds but main 2011 trend is broken and already retested<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you want to see charts larger scale, just click right mouse button on it and “open image in new tab” (chrome). SPX and its 1929-2000 trend holds for 4th month setting up 3rd point 2024\/2025 DXY – and its Read more…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57800504,"featured_media":5892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11172885],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-charts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/57800504"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5890"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5890\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}