{"id":6500,"date":"2025-03-31T23:18:06","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T21:18:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=6500"},"modified":"2025-03-31T23:18:07","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T21:18:07","slug":"04-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=6500","title":{"rendered":"04\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

SPX – its 1929-2000 trend is super valid, from montly perspective it’s being limited by 1929-2000 trend and next (M)MA20 is 5270, so nothing important here. Shorter term (W)MA50 limitation on 5687, but on (M) analysis that’s not really important. Huge negative divergence since 2018<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

QQQ – trend using 2 points is set between 2000-2021, last spike seems to be a false one<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SPX\/NDQ what is the same as SPX\/QQQ – we might see here 1990 TREND. Break of this trend will confirm the death of Nasdaq, but as a first step this support let’s call it TRIPLE-BOTTOM can’t be broken down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

VIX – VIX is very short term chart just from 2018, so I’m going to show log and non-log chart, one thing is sure. (M) closed above all important (M)MAs. Once again remember this 2018 moment, because it’ll be very important on SPX\/GOLD and DJI\/GOLD key cycle indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MOVE – Bond market volatility got stuck on the last (M)MA200. This (M) below (M)MA50, but secular golden cross is in<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

HYG – without any trends just look on (M)MA50 rejection. 7th month<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SPY\/TLT – massive reversal from the trend, maybe on (M) isn’t something weird, but if we look on (W) you’ll see (W)MA50 moment. If you take a look when last time (W)MA50 made a sustained break on SPY\/TLT you’re going to see February 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(M)onthly<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(W)eekly<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NKE – Nike broke (M)MA200 for the first time ever plunging into secular bear market. Let’s see if it’ll try to fight against this MA in upcoming months. This is a very good indicator about sentiment of consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AMZN – tries to defend this support. Gap down on April candle might be important for the bears<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MSFT – its key channel rejection, just like QQQ it’s trend is 2000-2021 too. (M)MA20 broken, so retest of the support which will be also red (M)MA50 will be important<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

GOOGL – not really different than AMZN – identical setup<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

TSLA – fights against trend and (M)MA50 – saved<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

CRM – another type of false break<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

US10Y – after 100Y trend retest it’s getting rejected and now below couple trends + (M)MA20, in reality I simplified this 100Y trend as it’s a trend since 1940, so 85Ys in reality<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EURUSD – and its 1.09 (M)MA50 retest also to the trend has been rejected, 1.05 is still critical level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DXY – on its key 103 level, once again market tries at any cost igniting “recovery” going below 2011 trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AUDJPY – when (M)MA50 breaks – it leads to very powerful drops on the market and market crash. Boucing between 95.5 and 92.2. Breaking 92.2 will probably lead to massive drop in the stock market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

LLY – and its big channel<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

BX – False break, so are we finally getting commercial real estate melt-down?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MAR – I was looking of MAR for a longer period of time, and came to conclusion its chart is this one. These are 2 channels. The first one is based on 1998-2008 points, upper one on 2007 peak. Second is a symmetrical clone of this one to the upside, pointing for 308 level. (M)MA20 broken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

LVMH – This chart looks like a disaster. Huge negative divergence, (M)MA50 broken after DOUBLE-TOP, retested and failed. We’ve seen this pattern before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NVDA – Saved the possible break of red trend line, but later you’re going to see that SOX in general seems to be busted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MU – again vibes from 2000 peak. Small false bull trap, failed, and now below (M)MA20 and red horizontal line is super big resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AMD – (M)MA50 rejection. Upper trend is on 1984-2000 peaks<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

INTC – it’s very weak. This 26$ level can’t be broken (what is not surprising looking how weak SOX is) and 12$ is tempting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ASML – first close below (M)MA50 since 2008. No additional comment needed<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ON – This is a typical dead-cat bounce chart. Last time on (M)MA100 we had support this time we’re going towards 25$ which is 2000 dot.com bubble peak level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MRVL – looks like it all depends what’ll happen from now on. DOUBLE-TOP and false spike now (M)MA50 + trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AMAT – same moment as MRVL – (M)MA50 and possible DOUBLE-TOP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SOX – so finally SOX in general, 4050 is important level <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SOX\/SPX – this ratio points to SOX bust, have in mind Jun2024 was a moment where AUDJPY placed DOUBLE-TOP with October 2007 level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SMCI – bounce from (M)MA50 to (M)MA20, if it’s still acts as a dead-cat bounce. Once (M)MA50 will be broken 4$ target<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USDCNH – Yuan is supporting (M)MA20<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USDKRW – Korean Won – support holds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USDTWD – Taiwan $ and huge break. I think once USDTWD broke the main trend = SOX peaked<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

FXI – China and its (M)MA200 secular bear market rejection<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EWH – still fights against the main 1998+ TREND<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NIKKEI225 – big DOUBLE-TOP, (M)MA20 broken<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EWW – Mexico – no need to comment, on critical trend line, below key (M)MA50\/(M)MA200<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EWZ – Brazil – RETEST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

INDA – India – still fighting<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

VGK – Europe – break-(M)MA50 bounce-retest<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

FTSE100 – UK probably failed to close above the channel. It’s been trying and trying<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XHB – Homebuilders and its channel rejection<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

LEN – probably false spike<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XLF and its FIBO 1.618 fight<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

C – multiple rejection of resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XLE – its trying soon for 3 years to stay around this level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XOM – but this megaphone pattern is rock solid so far<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

IWM – Small Caps closing below (M)MA50 with a massive DOUBLE-TOP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

KRE – Regional Banking is more or less following IWM, below trend with a massive false spike like IWM above it and again below (M)MA50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

JBHT – trend (and (M)MA100) saved<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UNH – trend broken, (M)MA50 doesn’t want to give up for now<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

TLT and its situation. Just like stocks fighting for critical point, TLT fights also for a final break of 92$ resistance which is also (M)MA20. My bet 82$ is the ultimate bottom<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

HYG\/TLT – below resistance = credit blowing up and so far it works fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD – massive break of secular trend, my bet it’ll continue going higher until SPX (M)MA50 will be broken down<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XAGUSD – looks like path to 48$ is open<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SPX\/GOLD – cycle indicator, around mid 2024 trend was broken (the same moment AUDJPY peaked)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NDQ\/GOLD – not so long term chart like SPX\/GOLD or DJI\/GOLD but this 1.13 level is tempting<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DJI\/GOLD – (M)MA200 broken – it’s a disaster. You see from those 2 charts DJI\/GOLD and SPX\/GOLD that longer term flip to get out from stocks post 2011 bounce was in 2018. 2018 was a year to replace stocks with gold and forget for years. Waiting for lower trend line. Might take 2-3Ys or 20Ys, but I think personally it’ll be 2-3Ys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

OIL – (M)MA200 retest, but closed below, breaking below red trend line = disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

GOLD\/BTC – BTC peak indicator so far works great<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

BTC – soon we’ll know if this break above 70k$ was a bull-trap or not<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MSTR – we can’t really look on BTC without MSTR. Saylor should feel 2000 vibes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ETH – 1600$ level is really important, so far pattern is broken, (M)MA50 broken and soon 1600$ retest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SOL – (M)MA20 broken and possible DOUBLE-TOP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

10Y\/2Y – another month to fight for (M)MA100. Closed above<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

10Y\/3M – closed below (M)MA50, so we have again a big difference between 10Y\/2Y which does not move and 10Y\/3M which tries to invert again. If 10Y\/2Y will not plunge, soon 10Y\/3M will spike higher to join 10Y\/2Y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SPX – its 1929-2000 trend is super valid, from montly perspective it’s being limited by 1929-2000 trend and next (M)MA20 is 5270, so nothing important here. Shorter term (W)MA50 limitation on 5687, but on (M) analysis that’s not really important. Read more…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57800504,"featured_media":6501,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11172885],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-charts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/57800504"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6500\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6501"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}