{"id":7948,"date":"2025-05-31T21:11:35","date_gmt":"2025-05-31T19:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=7948"},"modified":"2025-05-31T21:11:36","modified_gmt":"2025-05-31T19:11:36","slug":"06-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/?p=7948","title":{"rendered":"06\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In general this month was really interesting. We can split actual stock patterns into 3 categories. 1st – Retesting mostly 2021 peak, 2nd – Retesting broken (M)MA50 from the bottom, 3rd – Fighting with some longer trends + above 2021 peak, while still some typical cycle placement charts like SPX\/GOLD hanging on big support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SPX – as long as 1929-2000 trend holds, market is trying to breach (M)MA20, upside limiter is the trend = 6250, while still huge negative divergence<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DJI – as I’ve been saying 2000 wasn’t a bubble for DJI, but we need to keep the same trend as SPX, so in reality DJI tries to get support on 1929-2000 trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NDQ – Nasdaq 100 keeps fighting with 2000-2021 trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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RSP – so Equal Weight : 2021 level holds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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IWM – Small Caps – couple years of levitation :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DJT – Transportation is below (M)MA50 and it moves in channel. We clearly see 2021-2025 topping pattern so far and finally we are below (M)MA50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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JBHT – so transportation company looks awful – double-top – Mar2022 and Feb2024, broken everything<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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UPS – a disaster<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EURUSD and critical 1.14 secular trend retest<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AUDUSD – this currency follows mostly Yuan and I’m really annoyed by this pair the most. (M)MA20 retest again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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USDCNH – despite massive deflation China can’t allow Yuan to weaken to they will get bigger deflation. Weird logic but that how it works, but 7.20 support holds, USDCNH up = $$$ up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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USDJPY – Yen is getting stronger, because BoJ lost a game with its bond market. 140 is a key support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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CNHJPY – good pair showing blow up in China once it is going down<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AUDJPY – my #1 indicator about stocks going down\/up closed on the edge on (M)MA50, a micro move above, but I must put also (W) chart here as (W)MA200 is heavily lost. It’s really important to know that biggest moves down in stocks happen when (W)MA200\/(M)MA50 is broken and retested from the bottom. Remember this technical moment, and watch other technical moments of different charts which are alligned to this thesis which are not.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SPY\/TLT – my #2 chart related to stocks hangs on a key trend, what we can see that (M)MA50\/(W)MA200 on AUDJPY = SPY\/TLT trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DXY – and as a summary of all – got stuck below resistance 102-103, which is also (M)MA50, now holds on (M)MA100 which is a typical middle point often related with bull\/bear trap levels. Because USDCNH finds a bottom around 7.20, DXY should find a bottom on (M)MA100 as those 2 charts are alligned this way : 7.20 Yuan support now = (M)MA100 DXY. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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VRSN – Verisign- not really believe in this 2000 peak break, but it’s a break<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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COF – also 2021 support holds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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CDNS – multiple resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MU – holds 2000 resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AMAT – also below 2021 level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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INTC – this is still 12$ magnet<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NVDA – and its ~140$ level as a key resistance. (M)MA50 is 55$, (M)MA200 is 15$ – this is a massive technical bubble. I mean really massive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AVGO – 250$ is a key resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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ASML – holds (M)MA50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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LRCX – tries to hold above 2021 support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AMD lost (M)MA50 so far, but in 2022 it was trying to do the same, turned out to be a big bear trap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SMCI – it consolidates between (M)MA20 and (M)MA50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SOX – in general 2021 level holds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SPG<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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CRM<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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LVMH<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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KRE – lost key support 59,40$ (which flips to resistance), trend and (M)MA50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLF – this still fights with 1.618 level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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C – Citi<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLV – big moment<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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UNH<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLE – looks a bit bad, but not very bad<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XOM – no comment<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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OIL – also no comment<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLB – 2021 peak holds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLU – The biggest safe-heaven<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XLI – key level ahead<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NKE – looks terrible still<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SBUX – again hangs below (M)MA100 – people wil be driking 20$ shitty coffees?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MAR – Hotels got first crack<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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PEP – looks also terrible, but not as much as NKE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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KO – looks totally different than PEP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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LLY – reversing after a false break, also (M)RSI trend broken<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XHB – Support from 2021 level is also (M)MA50<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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BLDR – also first break of (M)MA50 since 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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BX – Blackstone<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DJUSRE – Dow Jones Real Estate<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MCD – is above critical support\/resistance level. Let’s see how long<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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HYG – tries another month fighting against (M)MA50 – fighting to save the shittiest credit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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US20Y and 5% holds as a resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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TLT – Just like US20Y – 5% is 85$ level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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US02Y – this 3.50% is a massive level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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10Y\/3M just +5bps but above (M)MA50 another time. Breaking +50bps will end the hopes. Keeping it inverted = adding gravity to the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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10Y\/2Y – +49bps – this shows us the path for 10Y\/3M with some unknown period of lag. 10Y\/3M is way more important than 10Y\/2Y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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JP30Y – well deserved break. Is it a true or false we’ll find out, I bet it’s a valid true break, as something needs to wipe out Japan for their decades of stupidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NIKKEI225 – not much changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AAPL – Apple and key 200$ level<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOOGL – similar pattern<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AMZN – also the same<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NFLX – has a bit different setup, probably megaphone with key level around 1180$<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MSFT – retest to key trend<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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FXI – China<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EWZ – Brazil<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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ECH – Chile<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EWW – Mexico<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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VGK – Europe<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EPOL – Poland<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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PALLADIUM – big consolidation<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DBC – Commodity ETN – below (M)MA200 :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DBA – Agruculture ETN – food inflation is still on fire<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XAUUSD – Gold<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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XAGUSD – Silver<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOLD\/SILVER ratio<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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BTC<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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MSTR – I still believe in this 2000 peak<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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ETH – it’s all about 1600$ support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SOL<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Cycle indicators and ratio charts – nobody uses gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SPX\/GOLD – support of (M)MA200 holds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DJI\/GOLD – this one still looks terrible. DJI is very weak index related to GOLD<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NDQ\/GOLD – also looks bad once (M)MA100 was not broken<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOLD\/BTC – in May we touched support and BTC peaked<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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CRB\/SPX – we see this inflationary spike post 2020, but it seems we’re going to place double-bottom here<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SOX\/SPX – tries to fight again with (M)MA50 from the bottom. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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IXIC\/SPX – Nasdaq Composite\/SP500<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In general this month was really interesting. We can split actual stock patterns into 3 categories. 1st – Retesting mostly 2021 peak, 2nd – Retesting broken (M)MA50 from the bottom, 3rd – Fighting with some longer trends + above 2021 Read more…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57800504,"featured_media":7949,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11172885],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-charts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/57800504"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7948"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7948\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7949"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gregtheanalyst.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}