Has US lost control?
August 30, 2026
US screws itself on every aspect of its hegemony. It turns out US is no longer an economical power and no longer a military power as well. That’s how it should end after its cycle ruling the world and dealing cards.
Decades of the $$$ as an officialy reserve currency have come to an end, but it doesn’t mean tomorrow we’ll wake up in an environment where $$$ will go away.
My prediction is unchanged. At some point of time US will be so toasted their only one possibility will be to blow up the financial system to buy some time.
During last interview of Scott Bessent about Iran’s sanctions he said something what we should all pay attention
- Reporter: Why not impose the sanctions today?
- Scott Bessent: “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?”
The US bond market is on the edge of collapse, while I still believe we might have a massive run for UST, but only under assumption of … blown up financial system and economic collapse.
You see all symptoms of US collapse as the secular disinflationary cycle end after peaking in “dead-cat bounce” late 2021 started its massive downturn looking on SPX/GOLD cycle indicator :
Let’s find out what SPX/GOLD chart has written, because if somebody gave this chart to me without telling what’s going on around the world, I would have said : “Oh – big reversal since 2021, big break since 2024. Probably a lot of stocks underperforming since late 2021. Now big moment which happened 5 times in 100Ys and each time the most powerful economic collapse appeared.”
You clearly see how everything went upside down since magical 2021/2022 :
QE in full force since 2008 and secular disinflationary cycle peak (SPX/GOLD 2000 peak) marked the moment where Corporate Profits went upside down :
Consumer confidence peaked in reality in 2018 (DJI/GOLD peak) with second lower peak after COVID crash in 2021/2022 :
Wealth inequality is a natural effect of secular disinflationary cycle which started in 1980 :
There’s no president, no FED member, no monetary policy that can bypass the problems :
You see the most obvious problems now, just let the SPX/GOLD ratio move … lower and problems will be multiplying. Because there’s no possibility to get out of them in a peaceful way. You see tariffs, Trump, wars, oil spikes, bond market blow up, BoJ giving up, demographics, blowing up currencies.
And when this war should have been finished after couple weeks as Iranian regime collapses including their economy it looks like 6 months passing and problems start hitting US at the end of August.
BREAKING: A classified Pentagon assessment has directly warned Trump’s war secretary Pete Hegseth that extending the Iran war will leave the U.S. military dangerously weakened — with senior commanders telling him America can no longer afford to fight this conflict without breaking itself, per The Washington Post.
BREAKING: Iran has struck an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz US-backed southern Omani corridor, while transiting under US escort, per UKMTO.
All Iran needs to do is to make sure this US30Y bond level will act as support to allow it to spike way higher, removing 10-20% of oil supply = -10 to -20% GDP contraction and they’ll manage to put the economy into global depression like they want.
US30Y – long end to blow up to follow others?
If Iran will manage to make support around 5.15% here it’ll be a huge problem for the US. If long end will crash the economy – US will have so many problems (and the world too) they probably won’t be able to continue any war and that’s what Iran wants. I said many times I expect one more bond bull run, but so far this break totally puts this statement on a side, unless US will ignite panic of massive crash.
Charts were on Iran’s side all the time. Said it on March :
Charts saying : Iran will not fold…
Charts saying Iran will escalate and that’s their key window (midterms and ammo problems in the US).
Strategic reserves keep draining to the lowest levels since 80s, while Iran blocking SoH removes 10-20% of global oil supply.
Same moment Trump going on tariff war vs Canada – good job.
BREAKING: Trump declares the U.S. will begin “topping out” the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with Venezuelan oil very shortly.
I’m not any expert in oil, but I know oil from Venezuela is a crap dedicated to produce tar and ashpalt and it needs years of investments and B$ of investments including US rafineries, while oil from Iran (Middle East in general) is the best one.
While SPX/GOLD wants to turn heavily down, 10Y/3M uninverted to +90bps and from my all analysis and indicator which I’ve developed – which is a combination of 10Y/3M, 10Y/2Y and 3M breaking (M)MA50 down started to turn ON around April/May 2026. This indicator with support of Kimi MAX (but based on my ideas) was written to eliminate possibility of SPX (M)MA50 support. Summary is : Once REC turns ON SPX will break (M)MA50 – so big test ahead.
The indicator
Oil is bullish, diesel breaks to new ATHs, and 10y/3m uninverting using still bear steepening
Iran needs to control this chart to make sure we’re about to get towards 120$ again as all support holds including (M)MA50 and (M)MA200, but oil isn’t something really important now.
Diesel wants to go higher… Higher than 147$ oil price in May 2008 peak.
And 10y/3m will uninvert even more once oil starts going higher after record ever inversion.
Last $$$ spike for game over …
My rule of thumb says … 10y/3m uninverts – here comes the $$$ spike. It’s not 1:1 but that how it works. The problem is that it looks like $$$ spike = OIL spike = RIP the whole world.
DXY keeps key trend (as expected) and waits for a shock.
Summary
US will have deep problems if long end bond market starts to collapse, the same time DXY starts going up and OIL starts going higher. SoH has removed 10-20% of oil supply. Each 1% is 1% GDP. 10Y/3M and record inversion tells us about the level of the problems, while SPX/GOLD stays around 1Q2008 level.
QE + MMT won’t work this time. Trump is a symptom of this sick economy and collapsed economic cycle and I wouldn’t be surprised if during some kind of chaos he will nominate himself on 3rd term. I love to say :
Trump is an appropriate president for SPX/GOLD (3M)MA200 break. He’s not on this position by accident. He was elected by the economy to make sure he’ll close the big cycle for good and for decades.
Reserve currency doesn’t last forever and it’s now 105Ys – the same moment when Great Britain folds
Why they lost reserve currency?
- Massive Debt: The cost of fighting forced the British to take out massive loans, primarily from the U.S.
- Depleted Gold: To pay for weapons and food, the UK had to liquidate its gold reserves and foreign investments.
- Industrial Disruption: The domestic economy shifted strictly to wartime production, losing global export markets to America.
- Empire Collapse: The cost of maintaining colonies after the war overwhelmed London’s empty budget, triggering the dissolution of the empire.
The time has come once SPX/GOLD has reversed. QE saved 2011+ economic collapse, but in reality we bought time for 10x bigger problems which once again from technical position have appeared again.