Friday, 09 May, 2025

Greg's blog ... When the crowd is always wrong

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Why I view this cycle as deflationary, not inflationary.

There are plenty of discussions about which type of bust is approaching, so far we had 10Ys of money printing aka QE, but inflation is barely up, except asset inflation what is typical in deflationary environment especially when bond prices Read more…


We are entering in the second junction … 2Q20 sit-rep

After initial drop, which surprised lots of people, we are entering in another junction or uncharted waters. You can cheat SP500, you can boost NASDAQ, but quite hard to cheat the key index which is not susceptible for manipulation = Read more…


1929 vs 2020 – my view

Plenty of discussion about V-Shape recovery, and how we’re going to avoid the depression, so before we start looking for a difference between 1929 vs 2020, how I see it, let’s define some basics : The trigger – can be Read more…


Depressed Millenialls looking for socialism – probably lost generation

There are plenty discussions around the world about different generations. All know we have baby boomers who are just about to retire and everybody knows Millennials (Z – generation – I do not split Millennials vs Z-Gen. For me these Read more…


Economy cycle sit-rep 1Q20 – dead cat bounce trigger seems to be released

I think it’s time to move back again to 26thJan18 … And analyse the cycle peak, let’s see how it looks from the past time. I’ve been using my observation that in the full cycle you’ll receive just 2 significant Read more…


Deflationary correction, inflationary correction, hope correction up and bust.

If you’re going to investigate how economy moves and what it drives you’re going to see each time 2 big corrections in the full recovery cycle. The first one is called “deflationary” one, the second is called “inflationary” one. I’d Read more…


The Trade Wars – when the money supply no longer works

All the time we’ve been hearing how bad president Donald Trump implements new tariffs and thanks to that economy keeps tanking. I think we don’t fully understand what’s hidden behind the curtain as history of last cycles will give us Read more…


Wyckoff logic – the electrocardiogram of the economy

When I’m looking at each economy cycle, no matter if it’s a big one, or small one every time I hear – this time is different. I’ve never understood people trying to convince themselves that market is bottoming or topping Read more…


What I’ve learned about economy cycles – summary.

I started lots of topics some time ago, and I have like 5 opened and don’t have time to sit and write all till the end, so maybe the newest one I’ll try to end. Maybe it’s confrontational but I Read more…


D as Deflation, W as Wealth Effect

We should all remember there are times which leads to inflationary environment and times we look for deflationary environment. There is nothing to fear about deflation, and probably more to fear about inflation, but there are tricks which allow to Read more…